JPMorgan Chase has issued a warning that the next three weeks are critical for Joe Biden’s presidential campaign, citing potential concerns about his support in key swing states. The firm states that a substantial deterioration of support in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania could lead to pressure for Biden to withdraw from the race.
According to JPMorgan, Biden has experienced a 1.5 to 2.0%-pt decline in national support since the recent debate. The firm believes that if Biden trails Donald Trump by 8-10%-pts in polls from these key swing states, it will significantly impact the Democratic strategy.
The brokerage firm also points to the potential for a shift within the Democratic party itself. While Biden has over 3,900 of the roughly 4,000 pledged delegates needed to secure the nomination, JPMorgan warns that public pressure from senior Democratic leaders like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to withdraw could be a sign of serious concerns. This pressure could be driven by concerns over the impact of Biden’s performance on Congressional races.
However, the firm also notes that Biden remains a strong fundraiser, having raised $127 million in June compared to Trump’s $112 million.
In the event of Biden’s withdrawal after the Democratic National Convention, JPMorgan anticipates Kamala Harris would be the most likely choice as the nominee.
Despite the concerns, the firm states that Biden is currently the presumptive nominee. However, the next three weeks will be crucial in determining the Democratic party’s strategy for the upcoming election.