France saw record turnout at the polls for the second round of parliamentary elections on Sunday, signaling strong public interest in a race that could see the far-right National Rally (RN) emerge as the dominant force.
With 59.71% of voters turning out by around 3 pm (local time), the figure surpasses the 38.11% recorded in the second round of voting in 2022. According to pollsters Harris Interactive and Ipsos, this is the highest afternoon turnout since 1981, reflecting the heightened polarization of politics. The same polls project a final turnout of around 67%, the highest since 1997.
Latest opinion polls forecast the RN, led by Marine Le Pen, to win the most seats in the National Assembly, although they predict it may fall short of an absolute majority. A fragmented parliament would herald a prolonged period of instability and policy deadlock in the eurozone’s second-largest economy.
A potential victory for the RN, a nationalist and eurosceptic party, would mark the first time the far-right has taken power in France since World War II, sending shockwaves through the European Union at a time when populist parties are gaining strength across the continent.
Polls close at 6 pm (local time) in smaller towns and 8 pm in larger cities. Pollsters will release initial projections based on early counts from a sample of polling stations at 8 pm.
Macron called the snap election after his ticket was trounced by the RN in the European Parliament elections in May. The strategy sought to destabilize his rivals in a legislative race that pits a centrist government against opposition movements from the left and far-right.
“The country is facing three radically opposed views of society,” said Olivier Grisal, a retiree, as he headed to his polling station in the middle-class town of Conflans Sainte-Honorine, west of Paris, with his wife.
Opinion polls indicate that Marine Le Pen’s RN will become the dominant force, with voters punishing Macron for the cost-of-living crisis and for his perceived disconnect from the people’s struggles.
However, the RN is not expected to reach the 289 seats needed to secure a parliamentary majority and deliver the Prime Minister’s job to Le Pen’s protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.
The projected margin of victory for the far-right has narrowed since Macron’s centrist “Together” alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) withdrew candidates from three close races in the second round, in an attempt to unify the anti-RN vote.
“France is on the edge of the abyss and we don’t know if we’re going to jump,” said Raphael Glucksmann, a member of the European Parliament who led the left-wing ticket in last month’s European elections, to France Inter radio last week.
Regardless of the final result, Macron’s political agenda appears to be in jeopardy, three years before the end of his term.
“Our country is going through a serious crisis, we are just a few hours away from a new order,” said engineer Pascal Cuzange, who said he voted for Macron’s alliance more as a protest against the alternatives than as a support for the president.
“There is a risk that the country becomes ungovernable.”
An RN-led government would raise serious questions about who truly represents France in Europe and on the global stage, as well as the future of the European Union, given France’s influential role in the bloc. EU laws would almost certainly restrict its plans to crack down on immigration.
Bardella states that the RN would not form a government if it doesn’t win a majority, although Le Pen has mentioned the possibility of trying to form a coalition if the difference to the majority is small.
France is not accustomed to forming broad cross-party coalitions in the event of a fragmented parliament. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who is likely to lose his position, is one of several political leaders who have ruled out this scenario. Another possibility is a caretaker government that manages day-to-day affairs but without a mandate for reforms.
The RN promises to reduce immigration, make legislation more flexible to expel illegal immigrants, and tighten rules on family reunification. In the economy, the party has softened some of its campaign proposals to protect household spending and lower the retirement age, but faces the challenge of France’s growing budget deficit.
France’s business elite is anxious about the risk of political instability and volatility.
French asset prices have risen with the expectation that the RN will not win a majority, with bank shares up and the risk premium demanded by investors to hold French bonds narrowing. Economists question whether the RN’s robust spending plans are truly fundable.